Polls Show Right-Wing Gov't Most Likely Election Outcome

Opinion polling from the month of May shows that, if reflected in the upcoming 23 July general election, the parties of the right would be on course to secure an overall majority in the Congress of Deputies. An average of seat projection polling from May has the centre-right People's Party (PP) winning 139 out of 350 seats, well short of the 176 needed for a majority.

• The right-wing nationalist Vox would come in third place with 45 seats according to the polling, totaling 184. It is unclear whether the two would be able to form a formal coalition, or if Vox could support a minority PP gov't in a confidence-and-supply agreement.
• In calling a snap election, PM Pedro Sanchez is banking on the prospect of a PP-Vox gov't boosting turnout for his centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the left-wing Sumar (United) alliance (which is seen as likely to include the PSOE's junior partner, Podemos).
• The election will be watched closely in Brussels, given Spain assumes the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 July. A change in gov't could see a change in priorities for the presidency, a sub-optimal situation for the EU given the significant preparation that goes into each six-month period, and the focus in H223 on the prospect (or lack thereof) of reform to EU fiscal rules post-pandemic.

Chart 1. Projected Seats in Congress of Deputies based on Average Opinion Polling from May 2023

Source: IMOP, Data10, ElectoPanel, GAD3, NC Report, Sociometrica, MNI. N.b. Seat total sums to 344 rather than 350 due to averaging.