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Opinion polls in Italy show almost no movement in support for parties over the past week despite the political upheaval that has come with the creation of a new technocratic gov't under former ECB chief Mario Draghi. Draghi due to meet with President Mattarella this afternoon to present his Cabinet of Ministers and have his appointment as PM formalised before a swearing-in ceremony tomorrow (no set times for either events yet).

  • Index poll: League: 24%, Democratic Party: 19% (-1), Brothers of Italy: 17%, 5-Star: 15%, Forza Italia: 7%, Action: 4%, Italia Viva: 3%. +/- vs. 3 Feb. '21. Fieldwork: 10 February 2021. Sample size: 800
  • With the prospect of an immediate snap election removed, some focus may shift away from what opinion polls are showing. However, once Italy's vaccination rollout reaches a certain level and the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations falls substantially, there remains the prospect that parties of the right could pull support from a Draghi gov't in an effort to force elections. This scenario becomes all the more likely if those right wing parties (League, Brothers of Italy, Forza) continue to poll well as a bloc.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 |