Polls Suggest October Election Going To Be Tight

Ahead of Thursday’s budget, the latest Newshub-Reid poll shows the two main parties are still tied and that Te Pati Maori could be the decider in Labour being able to form another government after the October 14 election. Polls in general are pointing to a tight election result.

• The incumbent Labour party has the support of 35.9% of those surveyed, down 2.1pp, while the opposition National party is down 1.3pp to 35.3%. The ACT is up 0.1pp to 10.8% and the Greens are unchanged with 8.1%. NZ First is up 0.8pp to 3% but still below the parliamentary threshold.
• Te Pati Maori has 3.5% support which would give them 5 seats allowing them to form a government with Labour and the Greens. In the NZ system, 7 seats are reserved for MPs from the reserved Maori list. The Nationals have ruled out a coalition with the Maori party, which is on the left.
• PM Hipkins’ popularity has risen 3.8pp to 23.4% while National leader Luxon’s fell 2.4pp to 16.4%. 49.9% believe that Hipkins is in touch with the issues while 47% said that Luxon was out of touch.
• The Taxpayers Union-Curia poll last week showed Labour on 33.8% and Nationals 35.6% with ACT at 12.7, the Greens 7% and Te Pati Maori 3.7%.
  - RNZ