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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
The implied probability of PM Boris Johnson leaving office in the coming weeks reached new highs yesterday according to betting markets following revalations of a meeting of 2019GE intake Conservative MPs, where the future of Johnson's tenure was discussed. The so-called 'pork pie plot' (led by Rutland and Melton MP Alicia Kearns) involved 20 Conservative MPs primarily from the 'red wall' seats in northern England. A number of whom are said to have already submitted letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee, with others willing to do so.
- According to data from Smarkets, the implied probability of Johnson leaving office in Q122 rose to 43.1%, from 23.8% on 18 January. Meanwhile, the implied probability of the PM's tenure lasting into 2023 fell from 40.0% to 25.0% in the same timeframe.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Date Boris Johnson Leaves Office, by Quarter, %
Source: Smarkets.
- The ongoing Westminster intrigue is continuing to distract the UK gov't and political class at a time when tensions in Europe over Russia/Ukraine are reaching fever pitch. Westminster risks being caught significantly off-guard if events to the east spiral further.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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