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The implied probability of PM Boris Johnson leaving office in the coming weeks reached new highs yesterday according to betting markets following revalations of a meeting of 2019GE intake Conservative MPs, where the future of Johnson's tenure was discussed. The so-called 'pork pie plot' (led by Rutland and Melton MP Alicia Kearns) involved 20 Conservative MPs primarily from the 'red wall' seats in northern England. A number of whom are said to have already submitted letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee, with others willing to do so.

  • According to data from Smarkets, the implied probability of Johnson leaving office in Q122 rose to 43.1%, from 23.8% on 18 January. Meanwhile, the implied probability of the PM's tenure lasting into 2023 fell from 40.0% to 25.0% in the same timeframe.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Date Boris Johnson Leaves Office, by Quarter, %

Source: Smarkets.

  • The ongoing Westminster intrigue is continuing to distract the UK gov't and political class at a time when tensions in Europe over Russia/Ukraine are reaching fever pitch. Westminster risks being caught significantly off-guard if events to the east spiral further.
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