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Position Adjusting Remains in Play Ahead of FOMC

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Position adjustments ahead of this week's FOMC/Fed Powell press conference acted to contain trade Monday within a range of $1.2094-1.2130.
  • Dips under $1.2100 attracted demand interest, keeping Friday's low, and 61.8% retrace level at $1.2093 ($1.1986-1.2266), intact with noted resistance at $1.2130/40 able to cap recovery efforts.
  • Market seen on the defensive expecting some reference to tapering from the FOMC but strength of this talk to determine next direction.
  • A break of $1.2093 to expose $1.2073/71(55-dma/May14 low) ahead of stronger support seen into $1.2052/51(May13 low, 76.4% 1.1986-1.2266/38.2% 1.1704-1.2266). Resistance $1.2130/40, stronger into $1.2170(61.8% $1.2218-1.2093).
  • Germany, France, Italy final CPI's 0600GMT/0645GMT0800GMT respectively. EU Trade 0900GMT. ECB Panetta speaks at 1350GMT, ECB Holzmann 1500GMT.
  • US Empire Mfg, PPI, Retail Sales, IP at 1230GMT, NAHB Housing Market Index 1400GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is trading closer to recent lows. The pair traded lower last week and breached initial support at 1.2111, the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low. The break lower signals scope for a deeper short-term correction and an extension would expose the next firm support at 1.2052, May 13 low with the 100-dma at 1.2043. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2218, Jun 9 high. A break would ease the bearish threat and open 1.2266 instead.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsHomepage

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