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Positioning Data Indicates Further MXN Optimism, Rabo Adjust Forecasts

MEXICO
  • Latest derivatives data from the CFTC show leveraged funds are the main force behind the peso’s strength, increasing holdings to 57,711 on the week through April 9 — the highest since March 2023. It was the biggest move in three weeks, and almost double the one seen the prior period.
  • USDMXN reached a fresh low of 16.26 last week and despite the most recent bounce following the hot US data, technical trend conditions remain bearish for the pair. A resumption of weakness would open 16.1238, the 1.618 projection of the Dec 5 - Jan 8 - Jan 17 price swing.
  • Rabobank have revised their short-term USDMXN forecast to reflect the confirmed close below 16.80. They now expect a push down towards the 16 handle (one-month forecast of 16.10), with the bulk of trading over the next month likely to occur below 17. Further out, Rabo still see a move back above 18 in the second half of the year as rate differentials narrow and volatility rises. Rabo’s “One-month MXN market model” also points to further downside for USDMXN.
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