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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

USDCAD TECHS

Trend Structure Remains Bullish

US TSYS

Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum

AUDUSD TECHS

Key Support Still Exposed

US STOCKS

Late Equity Roundup: 2W Highs

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Positive Start to New Quarter

US TSYS

New quarter underway with FI markets extending jobs-data lows, June 30Y bond futures through early Wed lows to 147-29 (-2-05), 30YY taps 2.5416 high before grinding higher around midmorning.

  • Short end back to pricing in more aggressive/multiple 50bp rate hikes for year (216bp by year end vs. 220bp on Monday). Broad-based inversions vs. 10s: yield curves bear flattened -- 2s10s slipped to -8.135 low, 5s10s slips to -18.522 low.
  • TYM2 currently at 122-07 (-21), above key resistance of 120-30+ Low Mar 28 and the bear trigger where a break would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and would open the 120-00 handle.
  • Decent jobs data (431k vs. 490k est but Fed up-revision of 95k and unemployment rate drop to 3.6%) initially underpinned stocks with SPX eminis to 4502.0 second half low.
  • Stock indexes traded mixed after the FI close, off midday lows to near middle of the session range. S&P eminis trading +4.75 at 4535.5, ESM2 well above key support of 4440.90 50-day EMA.
  • Cross asset update, crude see-sawed in weaker territory (WTI -$0.88 (-0.88%) at $99.37; Gold -$14.34 (-0.74%) at $1923.42.
  • Limited data next week, FOMC minutes release on Wednesday.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 12.2bps at 2.4564%, 5-Yr is up 10.7bps at 2.5671%, 10-Yr is up 5.5bps at 2.3932%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 2.4416%.
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New quarter underway with FI markets extending jobs-data lows, June 30Y bond futures through early Wed lows to 147-29 (-2-05), 30YY taps 2.5416 high before grinding higher around midmorning.

  • Short end back to pricing in more aggressive/multiple 50bp rate hikes for year (216bp by year end vs. 220bp on Monday). Broad-based inversions vs. 10s: yield curves bear flattened -- 2s10s slipped to -8.135 low, 5s10s slips to -18.522 low.
  • TYM2 currently at 122-07 (-21), above key resistance of 120-30+ Low Mar 28 and the bear trigger where a break would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and would open the 120-00 handle.
  • Decent jobs data (431k vs. 490k est but Fed up-revision of 95k and unemployment rate drop to 3.6%) initially underpinned stocks with SPX eminis to 4502.0 second half low.
  • Stock indexes traded mixed after the FI close, off midday lows to near middle of the session range. S&P eminis trading +4.75 at 4535.5, ESM2 well above key support of 4440.90 50-day EMA.
  • Cross asset update, crude see-sawed in weaker territory (WTI -$0.88 (-0.88%) at $99.37; Gold -$14.34 (-0.74%) at $1923.42.
  • Limited data next week, FOMC minutes release on Wednesday.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 12.2bps at 2.4564%, 5-Yr is up 10.7bps at 2.5671%, 10-Yr is up 5.5bps at 2.3932%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 2.4416%.