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Positive start to the week triggered by Covid and Brexit news


Risk has been on the front foot in the European morning session with core fixed income all moving lower while Treasuries have moved through Friday's lows already.

  • There has been more positive vaccine news this morning with the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine showing efficacy at 70%. This is someway off the circa 95% efficacy achieved by the mRNA vaccines of Pfizer and Moderna but the AZ/ Oxford vaccine is based on a more conventional technology of a mutated chimpanzee virus. This means it is easy to transport at refrigerated temperatures and a number of vaccines have already been promised to the less developed world at cost pricing - so this is still a positive for the world as a whole. And with vaccine production limited globally, another effective vaccine is still a good thing.
  • We have also had some positive Brexit murmurings in the press over the weekend, so hope for a deal is a bit higher today than it was Friday. This has helped to see gilts underperform Treasuries.
  • PMI data this morning beat expectations in the UK but has been more mixed across Europe with concerns about the labour market.
  • There are a number of speakers later today with four MPC members including Bailey testifying before the Treasury Select Committee and also speeches from the ECB's Schnabel and Fed's Barkin, Daly and Evans.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-5 today at 138-11 with 10y UST yields up 2.5bp at 0.850% and 2y yields up 0.3bp at 0.162%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.04 today at 175.49 with 10y Bund yields up 0.1bp at -0.583% and Schatz yields down -0.2bp at -0.762%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.18 today at 135.02 with 10y yields up 1.5bp at 0.315% and 2y yields up 0.4bp at -0.43%.

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