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Post-CPI Analyst Wrap: No Further Hikes [1/3]

CANADA
  • CIBC: Even with the slight upside surprise, the Oct and Nov prints combined leave inflation running below the BoC's October forecast of 7.1% for Q4. CIBC still see the Bank leaving rates on hold in Jan, although there is one more CPI print to come and it would be nice to see signs of deceleration in core measures.
  • Desjardins: A somewhat disappointing release as early indicators had suggested a more significant slowdown in inflation. We continue to anticipate that the BoC will pause in Jan, largely as the Canadian economy has yet to feel the full dampening effects of this year’s hikes. However, this data print keeps the door open to one more hike. Next month’s labour market print for Dec will be critical.
  • JPM: While the report included some good news on inflation dynamics—the very powerful decelerating trend in core goods and core services prices continued in Nov—short-term underlying core price pressures remain firm. We continue to expect a more rapid disinflation through 2023 that keeps the BoC on hold at 4.25% to year-end.

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