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Post-CPI pricing update

ECB
  • Little movement in March 49bp / May 91bp / June 122bp cumulative pricing.
  • Small increases in what's priced in a bit further out the strip: July 139bp (137bp pre-data), peak now at 152bp in December (150bp pre-data), before the curve inverts again.
  • We had noted this morning in our What to Watch bullet that we thought the market was expecting around an 8.5%Y/Y print and that a print around that level would see a limited market reaction.

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