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Post-Data/Fed's Logan Sell-Off Gathers Momentum,

US TSYS

Curves bear flattening as Treasury futures and equities extend sell-off post data: continuing claims the lowest since March 3 at 1.799M, another jolt lower after Fed's Logan states latest data does not justify a pause in current policy.

  • Front month 2Y futures hit 102-21.12 low (-6.12), yield taps 4.2560% high (April 19 area); 10Y futures fall to 114-02 low (-16.5), yield hits 3.6324% high. 2s10s curve marked -62.547 low.
  • Fed funds implied move for the next FOMC on June 14 climbs to 10.3bp, while projected rate cuts later in the year recede: September cumulative is -3.8bp (-11.1bp earlier) at 5.035%, November cumulative -23.9bp (-30.6bpo earlier) at 4.836%, Dec'23 cumulative -45.4bp (-52.5bp earlier) at 4.552%, while Jan'24 cumulative is -66.0bp (-72.9bp earlier) at 4.432%.
  • Fed Terminal climbs to 5.165% in Jul'23 this morning.
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