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Post-Holiday Bear Steepening With 3Y Supply, Mester In Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a sizeable bear steepening from Friday’s close after the Columbus Day holiday, despite 10Y yields pulling back after an earlier test of 4%. The moves see a catching up with a Gilts-led significant cheapening in European FI. 3Y supply and Fedspeak headline the docket ahead of PPI/FOMC minutes tomorrow and then CPI on Thu.
  • A small beat for the NFIB small business optimism survey didn’t move the needle although a reduced share of those raising selling prices and fewer difficulties filling positions suggest some progress in rebalancing at least at the margin.
  • 2YY +0.6bps at 4.314%, 5YY +3.5bps at 4.177%, 10YY +6.2bps at 3.943%, and 30YY +7.1bps at 3.912%.
  • TYZ2 trades 1 tick higher at 111-01+ with above average volumes after yesterday’s thin holiday session, off overnight lows of 110-21+ that came close to support at the bear trigger of 110-19 (Sep 28 low).
  • Fedspeak: Mester (’22 voter) at 1200ET – text + Q&A tbd
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (91282CFP1) – 1300ET
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