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Post-LIBOR Settle Update: 3M Benchmark Resumes Rise

US EURODLR FUTURES

Lead quarterly EDM2 trades weaker at 98.315 (-0.015), near overnight low after latest LIBOR settles resume, new 2-year highs for 3M: at 1.09829% (+0.03558) after climbing +0.05200 last week.

  • Balance of Whites (EDU2-EDH3) trade steady to -0.010 lower, Reds through Blues (EDM3EDH6) -0.010-0.035 lower, Golds (EDM6-EDH7) -0.040-0.050.
  • Inversion creeping forward: Red Sep (EDU3) currently trading 96.66 vs. Red Jun (EDM3) at 96.645 -- low measure of confidence in forward policy and/or Fed managing a soft landing/avoiding recession has been priced in for months.
  • Levels start to flatten out (dis-invert) around late Blue Sep'25-Dec'25 trading 97.035-.025.
  • Week opener: Hard to draw any conclusions from Monday's post-Easter Holiday trade. Limited option and underlying futures volumes with much of Europe still out for and extended weekend.
  • Underlying FI futures kicked off the new week moderately lower, holding to narrow ranges. Option trade mixed with better put trade in Treasury options, unwinding or positioning for a rebound ahead of the next Fed blackout that kicks off Friday at midnight, traders anticipating a 50bp hike at the next FOMC on May 4.
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