MNI BRIEF: UK Inflation At Slowest Pace In 30 Months - ONS

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY3 Bln Via OMO Weds; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY3 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI China Press Digest March 20: M&A, Consumer Rights, FDI

MNI BRIEF: China’s March Loan Prime Rate Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0968 Weds; -4.25% Y/Y

Little change for BOE expectations: CPI only saw very minor surprise

Looking at the drivers of the change in UK CPI

Services inflation in line with BOE forecast; headline a tenth lower

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Post-LIBOR Settle Update: Ebb & Flow Ahead July CPI

US EURODLR FUTURES

Lead quarterly EDU2 holds steady at 96.555 after latest 3M LIBOR set' inches +0.00171 to new high of 2.92271% (+0.05600/wk) - level not seen since late 2008.

  • Focus on this morning's CPI (MoM: 0.2% est vs. 1.3% prior; YoY 8.7% est vs. 9.1% prior) as futures scale back from modest late overnight highs: balance of Whites (EDZ2-EDM3) trade +0.005-0.010, Reds through Blues (EDU3-EDM6) +0.020 to steady, Golds (EDU6-EDM7) lagging at -0.005-0.010.
  • Another hot read for the inflation metric will see futures reverse course as another 75bp rate hike in Sep gets penciled in.
    • The Fed will be prepared to hold interest rates "higher for longer" should inflation continue to surprise to the upside, and market pricing will need to adjust accordingly, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard told MNI Tuesday, MNI FedSpeak podcast. "If we do get inflation slowing down, then we may be able to hold the rate at that higher rate for that period of time."
  • Meanwhile, Tsy 2s10s yield curve little off 22Y inverted lows after nearly breached -0.500 Tue (-56.0 low in Apr 2000, compares to record -241.65 low in March 1980), Eurodollar front end inversion bounces slightly: Dec'22/Mar'23 at -0.045. Most inverted calendar spds: EDZ2/EDZ3 at -0.640, EDH3/EDH4 at -0.775. Inversion flattens out in Blues Mar'26/Jun'27 trading flat at 97.385.
  • Rate hike insurance buying via SOFR and Eurodollar puts continued Tuesday, supporting low-delta volatility vs. slightly lower at-the-money vol (lack of real vol on range in underlying) in the lead up to Wednesday's July CPI read.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.