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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

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MNI: FRANCE JUL MANUF SENTIMENT AT 95

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Post-March FOMC Minutes Calm

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures holding modestly higher for the most part, near the middle of a wide session range. Futures fell back to pre-CPI levels after the Tsy $32B 10Y note auction tailed 2.3bp, but gradually climbed to middle of range (TYM3 115-25.5 +13.5) in the aftermath of the March FOMC minutes release.
  • Federal Reserve officials debated a temporary pause to interest rate hikes last month as a banking sector crisis raged but unanimously decided inflation pressures were still sufficiently worrisome to warrant a quarter point interest rate increase.
  • Post-minutes calm, projected year end rate cuts back to approximately -50bp cumulative for December after paring the move around midday. Initial impetus from the lower than anticipated CPI (CPI 0.1%, CORE 0.4%; CPI Y/Y 5.0%, CORE Y/Y 5.6%) has since scaled back the move while less than a 25bp hike at the May meeting holding steady.
  • Markets showed little reaction to several unscheduled Fed speakers this morning Richmond Fed initially stayed away from discussing policy at a annual conference on investing, reiterated "THERE IS STILL MORE TO DO TO GET CORE INFLATION DOWN ... while PAST PEAK INFLATION BUT WE STILL HAVE WAYS TO GO" at a midmorning CNBC interview.
  • Meanwhile, SF Fed President Daly said the U.S. economy could slow enough to bring down inflation without the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates further.
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