Post-NDF Dynamics In Play, Price Action Suggests All That Glitters Is Not Gold

Familiar post-NFP dynamics have generated selling pressure on spot USD/PHP this morning, pushing the pair to worst levels since Feb 16. The rate last trades -0.076 at PHP47.796.

• Bearish focus falls on the 76.4% retracement of the YtD rally/Feb 16 low at PHP47.751/47.721. Worth noting that the 50-DMA has crossed below the 200-DMA today. Wait for the close with the final judgement, but the recent golden cross may have been a false signal. On the flip side, bulls look to retake May 5 high of PHP48.133.
• USD/PHP 1-month NDF last trades +0.020 at PHP47.930 after re-testing Feb 2 low of THB47.840, the worst level since 2016.
• Philippine agricultural output fell 3.3% Y/Y in Q1, after a 3.8% decline recorded in the final quarter of 2020. The negative reading in Q1 was "was due to the reduction in the livestock and poultry production," said the Philippine Statistics Agency.
• A Cabinet off'l told Teleradyo that the gov't is open to reopening some industries in areas currently under MECQ to allow people to go back to work and "in June, we will make adjustments depending on the qualification."
• The latest report from OCTA Research Group suggested that the number of new Covid-19 infections in the NCR+ bubble remained in a downward trend. The researchers expect average daily case tally in the region to slip below 2,000 by the middle of this week.
• Philippine GDP report for Q1 is due tomorrow. After that, focus turns to Thursday's BSP MonPol decision, albeit BBG consensus forecast sees policymakers leaving benchmark interest rate unchanged (a lone dissenter expects a 25bp cut).