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Post-Payrolls Fed Funds Pricing

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated Fed Fends are pricing 73.3bps for Jul 27, +2.5bp on the day and a new high for the post-FOMC range.
  • There have been solid increases for subsequent meetings but they keep within the recent wide range, with 130bp for Sep (+5.5bp) and 188bp for Dec (+10bp).
  • This continues further out, with the peak in Mar’23 now eyed at 3.58% (+12bps) before 54bp of cuts to end-2023.
  • NY Fed’s Williams didn’t explicitly lean to one side of his previous guidance of seeing a debate between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the July meeting, but instead noted the 75bp in June was a critical step at moving expeditiously and that inflation is sky-high with risks its stuck too high. “As always, we will be data-dependent and nimble in our approach” comes ahead of CPI on Wed.

Source: Bloomberg

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  • FOMC-dated Fed Fends are pricing 73.3bps for Jul 27, +2.5bp on the day and a new high for the post-FOMC range.
  • There have been solid increases for subsequent meetings but they keep within the recent wide range, with 130bp for Sep (+5.5bp) and 188bp for Dec (+10bp).
  • This continues further out, with the peak in Mar’23 now eyed at 3.58% (+12bps) before 54bp of cuts to end-2023.
  • NY Fed’s Williams didn’t explicitly lean to one side of his previous guidance of seeing a debate between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the July meeting, but instead noted the 75bp in June was a critical step at moving expeditiously and that inflation is sky-high with risks its stuck too high. “As always, we will be data-dependent and nimble in our approach” comes ahead of CPI on Wed.

Source: Bloomberg