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Post Retail Sales React, Tsys Gap Lower

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures extending lows after higher than expected Retail Sales (0.6% vs. 0.4% est, 0.3% prior), March'24 10Y futures fall to 111-11 low (-16) -- focus on initial technical support at 111-06+ (Low Jan 05), followed by 111-02+ (50-day EMA).
  • 10Y climbs to 4.1114% high. Curves bear flatten: 2Y10Y -6.690 at -23.295.
  • Meanwhile, Import/Export index come out higher (0.0% vs. -0.5% est) / lower (-0.9% vs. -0.7% est) respectively.
  • Projected rate hikes for first half of 2024 recede slightly: January 2024 cumulative -.6bp at 5.323%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -58.2% w/ cumulative of -15.2bp at 5.177%, May 2024 chance of cut slips to -90.7%, cumulative -37.8bp at 4.950%. June 2024 cut still in play, cumulative -64.1bp at 4.687%. Fed terminal at 5.32% in Feb'24.
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