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Post-Waller Rally Continues, Long-End Holds Clearance Of Bull Trigger

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have continued to push out gains with the front end leading (2s and 3s both 9.5bp richer on the day), spurred by a dovish Waller first saying he was increasingly confident in the policy stance and then adding that there could be scope for lowering rates if inflation stays lower over the coming months (three, four or five).
  • The longer end is getting dragged with it, with 10s currently 5bp richer and in futures space has seen a clearance of notable resistance.
  • TYZ3 at 109-15+ has recently touched a new high of 109-17 to further push above the bull trigger at 109-08+ (Nov 17/22 high) and open 109-20 (Sep 19 high).
  • Still to come, $39B of 7Y supply at the top of the hour (see our preview at 1020ET, also here), after yesterday’s relatively smooth absorption of 2Y and 5Y paper allowed for a further rally, followed by further Fedspeak although Barr and Paese are less likely to touch on monetary policy relevant areas.
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