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Post-Waller Rally Extends, Supported By Softer Inflation Overseas

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are off best levels but still trade 3-4bp richer today in an extension of yesterday’s accelerated rally following dovish remarks from Waller (increasingly confident Fed policy well positioned; if inflation stays at similar readings for three, four or five months could see lower rates).
  • The move was helped at the margin by softer than expected Australian CPI, and whilst most of the move had come ahead of softer than expected German regional inflation, it helped support the richer levels on the day.
  • After yesterday’s large steepening, the parallel shift in the curve keeps 2s10s at -41bps for back at mid-Nov levels.
  • TYH4 at 110-05+ (+08+) is off an earlier high of 110-14+, with the day’s increase reinforcing the current bullish theme. The earlier high marks initial resistance after which lies 110-25 (1.00 proj of Oct 19-Nov 3-Nov 13 price swing).
  • Data: The second release for Q3 GDP/PCE (0830ET) is in focus today with consensus for GDP to have firmed marginally further to a particularly strong 5% annualized. We also see weekly MBA mortgage data shortly (0700ET), plus wholesale/retail inventories and the advance trade balance all for October (0830ET).
  • Fedspeak: Mester (’24) on financial stability at 1345ET ahead of the Fed’s Beige Book at 1400ET.
  • Bill issuance: Tsy to sell $56B 17-week bills (1130ET)
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