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PostNL (PNLNA NR/BBB[N]/NR) Yesterday's equity bid

CONSUMER STAPLES

Equites finished +6.5% yesterday, and though we saw no news and attributed it to carryover takeover sentiment from last week, Bloomberg news tied it to bullish comments from a broker later in the day. We'd note it's cited the same broker 3 times in the last 2-months for price action - the broker has remained bullish throughout.

  • Our view on the €26s is unch, we will revisit the €31s after earnings on the 5th.
  • Analyst consensus for 2Q (to June) now released by company - below.
  • As we noted when it came to issue, guidance for FY is backloaded on seasonality to the 4Q (for both EBIT and FCF).
  • Still FY (ending Dec) consensus isn't great at EBIT of €85m (-7.6%yoy) and FCF of €22b (-58%yoy).
  • Company FY guidance in May was EBIT between €80-110m and FCF of €0-40m.

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