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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
[Excerpt below taken from the MNI US Payrolls Preview - found in full here]
- Consensus sees average hourly earnings increasing 0.3% M/M in June, but with some analysts looking for a stronger increase owing to positive calendar effects.
- It follows the surprisingly strong 0.40% M/M in May, a four-month high, along with upward revisions.
- That May print also included a particularly strong 0.47% M/M for non-supervisory employees for its fastest since Mar 2023, potentially reflecting the minimum wage impacts as flagged by some analysts who had looked for upside risks at the time.
- Back to June, a 0.3% M/M increase should translate to 3.9% Y/Y growth for its softest pace since May 2021 along with a slightly softer quarterly pace. That’s probably still a little too high for the FOMC’s comfort but the trend is moving in the right direction.
- The fact that there’s a potential positive calendar effect at play could limit the hawkish reaction to any surprises (as the assumption would be a reversal in July), but the only marginal skew higher in analyst estimates could mean this offsetting impact is marginal.
- Average weekly hours worked should also be watched to help assess the impact of any surprises in the wage data. Hours are seen holding at 34.3 as they remain in the 34.3-34.4 range seen in every month since Mar 2023.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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