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FOREX: Potential Tariff Targets See Early Vol Pressure

FOREX
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  • Trump's inauguration schedule kicks off in earnest from 1200ET/1700GMT (full details here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIPOLRISK_Inauguration_Day_Schedule_07a11994f9.pdf ), raising headline risk around a slew of early executive orders that could define the beginning of the Presidency. WSJ writes that Trump's initial agenda will target "mass deportations, tariffs and slashing the size of the federal government".
  • As such, potential tariff target currencies are being isolated by heightened vol so far, countering the view that Monday could be a quiet session due to the MLK Day holidays. The front-end of the USD/CAD vol curve has rallied aggressively: overnight vols cleared 20 points for the first time since the election itself to hit the highest since late '22, while USD/MXN vols are north of 30 points, for comfortably a YTD high.
  • The downside risk for CAD is underpinned by the bullish undertones for USD/CAD - for which recent S/T weakness has proved corrective in the formation of a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Friday’s gains expose 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. This level looks well within reach on any early punitive tariffs targeting USMCA nations - and the run higher in vols suggests the intraday move in spot could be considerably larger. USD/CAD rallied ~150 pips on the election results in November (and a further 200 pips in the following week).
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  • Trump's inauguration schedule kicks off in earnest from 1200ET/1700GMT (full details here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIPOLRISK_Inauguration_Day_Schedule_07a11994f9.pdf ), raising headline risk around a slew of early executive orders that could define the beginning of the Presidency. WSJ writes that Trump's initial agenda will target "mass deportations, tariffs and slashing the size of the federal government".
  • As such, potential tariff target currencies are being isolated by heightened vol so far, countering the view that Monday could be a quiet session due to the MLK Day holidays. The front-end of the USD/CAD vol curve has rallied aggressively: overnight vols cleared 20 points for the first time since the election itself to hit the highest since late '22, while USD/MXN vols are north of 30 points, for comfortably a YTD high.
  • The downside risk for CAD is underpinned by the bullish undertones for USD/CAD - for which recent S/T weakness has proved corrective in the formation of a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Friday’s gains expose 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. This level looks well within reach on any early punitive tariffs targeting USMCA nations - and the run higher in vols suggests the intraday move in spot could be considerably larger. USD/CAD rallied ~150 pips on the election results in November (and a further 200 pips in the following week).