###POV: ASK NOT WHETHER TO CUT 50, BUT..........>

FED: ###POV: ASK NOT WHETHER TO CUT 50, BUT WHETHER TO CUT AT ALL: Last night's

comments by Clarida and Williams - among the heaviest hitters on shaping FOMC

policy - were aimed at cementing the case for cutting at the July meeting rather

than waiting, and NOT for cutting 50bps vs 25bps in July.

- The NY Fed issuing a clarification was about as clear a walk-back on 50bps as

you can get, accelerated in urgency no doubt by the looming blackout period.

- Markets debating 25bps vs 50bps when the internal Fed debate is more likely to

be whether to cut now or in September given solid data, and how much after that.

- Our take on Voters' end-2019 dots from the June FOMC: George +25bps.

Rosengren/Quarles/Bowman hold. Clarida/Brainard/Bullard/Evans/Powell/Williams

cuts (1 for 25bps, 5 for 50bps). Arguably all now see case for cuts (i.e. hawk

George on Jul 17), but not necessarily in July. Hence Williams/Clarida`s case.

- Even Bullard, the biggest dove, was clear on June 25 re no 50bps cut - even

before solid data / G20 trade truce. He and Rosengren appear on panels today.

- Bullard`s last chance to imply 50bps is possible, but Rosengren (panel on

CenBank independence), the doves' target audience, could be more impactful.