### POV, Be wary of this morning's....>

US DATA REACT: ### POV, Be wary of this morning's better than expected September

ADP that came out +230k vs. a whisper number around +185k. Underlying futures

were slow to react to the number, sellers exhibited caution before joining

better selling in the minutes after the release. Tactical opportunity to fade

the strong number still exists as Tsy futures hold near session lows.

- Moody's economist Mark Zandi noted on CNBC after the release that "ADP

measures people actively enrolled for paychecks, not those actually paid in a

given period. So as a result, it does not decline as much when people are unable

to work due to weather and are therefore not paid, like when a hurricane hits.

So the number this month suggests solid private payrolls growth, though not as

strong as the 230k number this morning might indicate."

- Noted earlier, unlike the BLS, that tracks employees paid during month, ADP

methodology includes active employees. These are chosen over paid because

employees may receive more than one paycheck for incentive pay or bonuses. This

would result in multiple records and, therefore, inclusion of such records would

overstate the actual number of employees on a company's payroll.