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### POV: CAUTION AHEAD OF UK DATA - GBP.......>

CABLE
CABLE: ### POV: CAUTION AHEAD OF UK DATA
- GBP retains a heavy tone ahead of the busy UK calendar this week which could
prove key for the future rate path. The BoE remain data dependant and despite
Vlieghe's earlier remarks of one or two quarter point rate increases per year
over a three-year period, markets are still pricing in only 1 hike this year.
- Caution will be shown ahead of Wednesday's CPI release. Headline inflation is
expected to hold steady at 2.5%, Core CPI could contract slightly to 2.2%.
Retail Sales are scheduled on Thur, followed on Fri by the 2nd estimate Q2 GDP.
- Downside risks remain as GBPUSD is currently showing a near clean sweep of
bearish signals on an intraday, daily and cloud basis, according to the MNI FX
Technical Signal Monitor.
- Seasonal trends continue to play out in May where GBPUSD has shown 8 straight
losses (currently -2.36%).
- 1m risk reversals have dropped to their equal lowest level in around three
months. The 1m contract now brings the Jun21 BoE meeting into scope as option
traders take a more bearish approach.

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