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### POV, CREDIT-EVENT ALARMS ARE STARTING...>

US TSYS
US TSYS: ### POV, CREDIT-EVENT ALARMS ARE STARTING TO GO OFF.
- No time to be lulled into a long winters nap. Real vol continues to deliver
after stocks tumbled/corrected this week (DJIA -4.15% Thu, -6.01%/month; S&Ps
-3.75% Thu, -6.19%/month), while the surge in Tsy ylds this wk partially blamed.
- Three-tail Treasury-note/bond supply indigestion with more on the docket.
Tue's newly upsized $28B auction tailed 0.5bp, Wed's upsized $24B 10Y note
auction tailed 0.8bp while Thu's upsized $16B 30Y bond auction tailed a full
point. Meanwhile, the US govt continues to kick budget resolution down the road,
Continuing Resolution (CR) resetting shut-down clock to March 23.
- Red Flags for potential credit event: CDX IG (Markit CDX North America
Investment Grade Index of 125 equally weighted credit default swaps on
investment grade entities) jumped nearly 5.5pts late Thursday. Moody's just
anncd that the U.S. stable credit profile (Aaa) "is likely to face downward
pressure in the long-term, due to meaningful fiscal deterioration amid
increasing levels of national debt and a widening federal budget deficit." 
- How 'bout a good ol' fashioned military parade to fire everyone up?

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