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US TSY FUTURES
US TSY FUTURES: ### POV, CURVE INVERSION/RECESSION FLAG AND HY CREDIT SPDS
- Bang curve inversion drum loud and long enough, everyone starts talking about
it: multiple strategy and opinion write-ups over wkend re: continued Tsy yld
curve flattening (10yr) lows well as Eurodollar strip inversion/extension (see
MNI ANALYSIS: Futures Market Points To Fed Rate Cuts In 2020). Note: L/T trend
of Tsy yld curve flattening points to inversion (inversions over past 60yrs,
recession occurs appr 66% of time within two years).
- Market participants at a loss to explain today's sell-off in rates (albeit on
light volume, TYU<450k), yield curves bouncing off lows.
- While MNI has covered same extensively over the past year, Reuters posted good
write-up on recession trigger correlation to corporate credit spds as a "pretty
big tell". However, morning sell-off in rates coincided w/Bank of America
research piece heralding "strong earnings growth and low defaults" are "around
the corner", that yld curve "is often over-interpreted" while "lag to tightening
in financial conditions could be considerable." Note, large Eurodlr steepener
Block soon after (+40k EDU0/U1, 0.020, 0.030 last), betting on further rebound.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 | bill.sokolis@marketnews.com