### POV: DIVIDEND SEASON COULD SEE SEK.....>

EURO-SEK: ### POV: DIVIDEND SEASON COULD SEE SEK FALL FURTHER STILL

-SEK is one of the few currencies to have underperformed the EUR this week, as

markets take the view that the ECB's guidance shift will force the Riksbank to

make similar moves in coming months (NOK followed suit). However, the worst

could still be yet to come for the SEK, with Sweden's dividend-paying season due

to begin at end-March, lasting through to mid-May which historically tends to be

negative for the currency.

-As many as 150 Swedish firms pay dividends over the next 2 months or so, across

which EUR/SEK tends to rise. Of the past eight years, EUR/SEK has risen in every

April and May month except three, meaning SEK has weakened across 79% of all

dividend-paying months.

-A move higher in EUR/SEK would run counter to analyst expectations, with just

one analyst of the 27 surveyed by Bloomberg seeing a higher EUR/SEK in three

months' time (consensus is for a return to around the Sek10.40 mark). Riksbank

policy path will likely be key from here, but markets have plenty of room to run

ahead of the next rate decision on April 25th.