### POV: Given that the APP was concluded in....>

ECB: ### POV: Given that the APP was concluded in December, the hurdle rate for

a further shift in policy is particularly high at this week's ECB meeting. The

twin focus will be messaging around the balance of economic risks in light of

the recent weak data flow, and whether there is any indication of potential

TLTROs at some point.

- Neutral: No change in policy or forward guidance. Draghi acknowledges the

deterioration in economic data but argues that risks remain broadly balanced.

Reference to TLTROs is purely theoretical, with the ECB pointing out that this

is part of the toolkit.

- Dovish Risk: Negative reassessment of economic risks, with Draghi reiterating

a commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy stance. A task

committee is charged with exploring the possibility of new TLTROs, including

possible modalities.

- Hawkish Risk: The ECB argues that the current slowdown is temporary and

emphasises the role of the current monetary policy stance in supporting economic

activity. Draghi argues that labour market tightening will drive CPI higher.