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US TSYS: ### POV: GO FOR THE GUSTO: BUY LONG-END US TREASURIES:
- Long end Treasuries should see more demand near-term/in 2018 amid tame
inflation pressures amid 0.1% November core CPI out Wednesday. Longer Treasuries
should also see buy-and-hold investor demand amid pension funding needs: many US
pensions are under-funded so they need to crank up the buying into the yrend
(won't be as much tax benefit for same moves in 2018 due to lower US corporate
- Long-end Tsys will be needed as funds esp. hybrid funds need to rebalance
after US stocks rallied in 2017. (Hybrid funds often have a 60% stocks/40% bonds
allocation, so that means with DJIA +25% year-to-date and Nasdaq +28%, funds may
have to sell US stocks/buy US$ bonds to get back that allocation.)
- And traders may want long end Treasuries as Tsy will beef up issuance in
T-bills through 5-yr notes. (JPM expects $456B net T-bill issuance in 2018.)
- And 30-yr bd demand cld outperform front end in 2018: FOMC 2018-2019 rate hike
agenda shd prevent inflation from busting through key 2%, or holding above in
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