###POV: HIKE TO WAIT UNTIL SEPTEMBER:........>

NORWAY: ###POV: HIKE TO WAIT UNTIL SEPTEMBER:

There is a near-zero chance of a Norges Bank hike on Thursday, but a 25bps

increase in the key policy rate to 0.75% in September looks likely.

- With all 17 analysts in the Bloomberg survey expecting a hold Thursday,

attention will turn to the policy statement, which looks set to reaffirm the

September hike that Norges Bank`s executive board clearly signposted in June.

- Conviction on hiking next month is likely to be reinforced by big upside

surprises to inflation in July, with Headline CPI up 3.0% y/y (consensus 2.6%)

and Underlying up 1.4% y/y (consensus 1.2%), both above Norges Bank's forecasts.

- NOK is about 1.4% weaker on a trade-weighted basis than Norges Bank forecast

back in June, which on balance adds to the case for a forthcoming hike.

- Norges Bank announces the decision at 0900BST/1000CET Thursday.

- For more on the policy outlook, see `MNI STATE OF PLAY: Norges Bank Won't

Stray From Sep Hike Path` (emailed Aug 9 at 0910BST) or contact us.