### POV: No Change At Final 2019 Meeting -.....>

RBA: ### POV: No Change At Final 2019 Meeting 

- The RBA should leave its MonPol settings unch. on Tuesday, in order to let the

effects of this year's monetary easing filter through into the econ, taking the

view that a "after a soft patch in H218, a gentle turning point appears to have

been reached." The new year hiatus will provide the Bank with a greater window

to assess the feedthrough of the aforementioned stimulus. With the effective

lower bound for the cash rate set at 0.25%, and the preferred methods of

unconventional MonPol outlined, the Bank has revealed what we should exp. if its

economic exp. are not met; but remember, Gov. Lowe noted "there may come a point

where QE could help promote our collective welfare, but we are not at that point

& I don't expect us to get there." Also worth remembering that the RBA has

pointed to passthrough of the recent monetary stimulus via the traditional

transmission mechanisms & continues to call for further fiscal easing.

- Base Case: Unchanged MonPol settings, reiterates forward guidance.

- Dovish Risks: Worry expressed via Nov minutes magnified by recent soft data.

- Hawkish Risks: Global developments give more credence to gentle turning point.