### POV: NO RATE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM........>

CANADA: ### POV: NO RATE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM BOC/NINTH CONSECUTIVE ANNC

Bank of Canada will leave target rate steady at 1.75% at its policy annc Wed at

1000ET/1400GMT and will not be accompanied by Monetary Policy Report (MPR)

forecast update. MNI PINCH model assigns 4.3% chance of 25bps cut Wed vs. 13.8%

wk ago, 24.4% chance of cut in Jan. Analysts across the board expect BoC remain

on hold Wed, chances of dovish annc in 2020 vary from 0% to as early as Q1.

- Base case: Steady as economic growth continues, housing remains strong and

inflation on target, 1.75% overnight rate likely on hold through early 2020.

- Dovish: The drag from global economic slowdown catches up to Canada, while

small and medium business owners report the worst outlook and inflation

expectations in three years this November, spurs the BoC to ease the target rate

by 25bps Wed. 

- Hawkish: It's hard to come up (and has been for some time) with a plausible

scenario that would spur the bank to hike Wednesday. Long-shot is global markets

surge as US throttles back on trade rhetoric in early 2020 -- potentially

spurring a hawkish ton by mid-2020.