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POV: No Surprises From BOC, Steady At 0.25%

CANADA

Baseline expectations, the Bank of Canada is yet again expected to keep its target rate on hold at 0.25% Wednesday.

  • Markets will be alert to any changes in asset purchases via QE and/or mortgage lending via Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMB) Program. Despite the negative effects of COVID-19 since summer, the Monetary Policy Report's GDP growth expectations are widely expected to be positive after pessimistic estimates made in July.
  • Dovish risk: Not from negative rates which the BoC remains disinclined to use, but from tweaks to QE or additional GoC bond buybacks, already robust at $5 bln/week.
  • Hawkish risk: Not as unlikely as dropping into negative territory, hiking rates after reaching a sustainable 2% inflation target is a long way off (2022-2023 est). Tapering back QE is more likely to come sooner.
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