### POV: NORGES BANK UNLIKELY TO........>

NORGES BANK: ### POV: NORGES BANK UNLIKELY TO DEVIATE FROM MARCH HIKE PLAN

-The Norwegian Central Bank are expected to keep policy unchanged at their Jan24

meeting, keeping the benchmark deposit rate at 0.75%. Both the November and

December CPI readings fared better than expected, which should reinforce their

implied rate path steering toward a hike in March. No new economic forecasts or

a collective rate path will be published at the January decision.

-Dovish risk: Should the bank stress that domestic economic developments are

coming under severe pressure from external downside risks, this may be

interpreted as a message that a March rate hike may not be the first of a

prolonged series, proving negative for NOK.

-Hawkish risk: The bank are the only one in G10 expected to tighten policy in H1

this year and any indication that the implied twice-yearly rate hike path could

steepen (through downplaying of risks to the outlook of the Norwegian economy

from Brexit, trade tensions or a Eurozone slowdown, for example) may prove NOK

positive and bring EUR/NOK's 100- and 200-dma of Nok9.6623 and Nok9.6120 into

view as carry opportunities begin to materialise.