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### POV: NORGES BANK UNLIKELY TO........>

NORGES BANK
NORGES BANK: ### POV: NORGES BANK UNLIKELY TO DEVIATE FROM MARCH HIKE PLAN
-The Norwegian Central Bank are expected to keep policy unchanged at their Jan24
meeting, keeping the benchmark deposit rate at 0.75%. Both the November and
December CPI readings fared better than expected, which should reinforce their
implied rate path steering toward a hike in March. No new economic forecasts or
a collective rate path will be published at the January decision.
-Dovish risk: Should the bank stress that domestic economic developments are
coming under severe pressure from external downside risks, this may be
interpreted as a message that a March rate hike may not be the first of a
prolonged series, proving negative for NOK.
-Hawkish risk: The bank are the only one in G10 expected to tighten policy in H1
this year and any indication that the implied twice-yearly rate hike path could
steepen (through downplaying of risks to the outlook of the Norwegian economy
from Brexit, trade tensions or a Eurozone slowdown, for example) may prove NOK
positive and bring EUR/NOK's 100- and 200-dma of Nok9.6623 and Nok9.6120 into
view as carry opportunities begin to materialise.

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