###POV: QE DISCUSSED BUT NOT ACTED UPON:...>

ECB VIEW: ###POV: QE DISCUSSED BUT NOT ACTED UPON: ECB is wildly expect to

discuss options on QE but delay making a formal announcement until the July

meeting. ECB also seen ending its APP at end of December this year.

- MNI PINCH shows market pricing in just 7.5bps of rate hikes by June 2019

meeting and 13bps of hikes by September 2019.

- Focus is on introductory statement, updated staff forecasts, outlook and Q&A

session. Key question will be on how far discussions on ending QE went.

- Hawkish Risk: ECB announces end of APP, sees little downside risks and

inflation converging to target. Sharp sell-off in EGBs, Euro rallies.

- Neutral: Draghi confirms in press conference GC had discussion on APP, but

reiterates rates will remain at present levels for extend period of time and

well past horizon of net asset purchases. Global risks remain and inflation

forecasts revised slightly higher. Small fall in Euro, Bund Curve flatten

- Dovish: APP discussed but need more time/data to reach conclusion to see if

rise in CPI sustained. Hint QE could be extended beyond Dec. Further loss of

growth momentum in EUR, risk to growth turns negative. Euro falls, EGBs rally.