### POV: RBNZ LIKELY TO CUT, RETAIN EASING.....>

RBNZ: ### POV: RBNZ LIKELY TO CUT, RETAIN EASING BIAS

- The RBNZ are unanimously expected to cut the OCR by 25bps to 1.25% on

Wednesday.

- The Bank noted in June risks were "tilted to the downside" and that a lower

OCR "was likely necessary." Recent data has confirmed this which should see the

RBNZ retain an easing bias, opening the door to at least one further cut.

- Global growth concerns will likely see GDP forecasts revised lower. The Bank

will reiterate its data dependant stance, putting more emphasis on domestic

matters such as the labour and housing markets. 

- Central view: Cut the OCR by 25bps, retain easing bias. Likely to cut GDP

forecasts and maintain data dependant stance.

- Dovish risk: Concern over the escalating US-China trade war and softer

domestic conditions, i.e. jobs and housing.

- Hawkish risk: Hard to see a hawkish surprise this time.