### POV: RBNZ LIKELY TO EASE AGAIN For many....>

RBNZ: ### POV: RBNZ LIKELY TO EASE AGAIN

For many of those sitting on the fence so far, today's Inflation Expectation

Survey may have tipped the balance. The numbers softened further, despite the

front-loaded 50bp cut in August, and the MPC had them in advance. Of course, a

single release is not enough to tilt the overall picture, but last week's

surprise increase in unemployment rate also raised some eyebrows. Admittedly,

there have been bright spots, such as a slight beat in CPI, better business

sentiment or positive signals re: NZ dairy mkt. There has also been a growing

perception that external headwinds have eased with progress in U.S.-China

phase-one trade deal. But those developments come with caveats. CPI remained

sub-target and biz. sentiment remains subdued. Furthermore, the U.S. and China

show little appetite to concede on key issues. On top of that, this MPC has

proved its pre-emptive attitude, which can prevent it from staying its hand.

- Base Case: A 25bp cut to the OCR

- Dovish Risk: A 25bp OCR reduction, talk of reviewing unconventional MonPol

- Hawkish Risk: No change to the OCR, albeit with an easing bias