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RBNZ: ###POV: RBNZ TO REITERATE NEUTRAL BIAS
- The RBNZ is widely expected to keep its OCR unchanged at 1.75% on Thursday,
with focus on the accompanying statement for future guidance.
- Despite the NZ Q3 labour market report & GDP data outperforming the RBNZ's
forecasts, downside growth risks remain.
- With business confidence & investment continuing to hold at extremely low
levels, the RBNZ is likely to take a cautious approach, re-affirming forward
guidance that the next move in the OCR may be up or down.
- Neutral view - RBNZ delivers balanced statement, highlights downside growth
risks, direction of the next OCR move could be up or down.
- Hawkish risk - Focus on recent strong domestic GDP/jobs data, bring forward
OCR rate path projection.
Dovish risk - Note softer commodities, rising fuel prices & weaker global
outlook. Push out OCR rate hikes further.