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November 07, 2018 09:07 GMT

###POV: RBNZ TO REITERATE NEUTRAL BIAS - The...>

Darren Walker

Anthony Barton

RBNZ

RBNZ: ###POV: RBNZ TO REITERATE NEUTRAL BIAS

- The RBNZ is widely expected to keep its OCR unchanged at 1.75% on Thursday,

with focus on the accompanying statement for future guidance.

- Despite the NZ Q3 labour market report & GDP data outperforming the RBNZ's

forecasts, downside growth risks remain.

- With business confidence & investment continuing to hold at extremely low

levels, the RBNZ is likely to take a cautious approach, re-affirming forward

guidance that the next move in the OCR may be up or down.

- Neutral view - RBNZ delivers balanced statement, highlights downside growth

risks, direction of the next OCR move could be up or down.

- Hawkish risk - Focus on recent strong domestic GDP/jobs data, bring forward

OCR rate path projection.

Dovish risk - Note softer commodities, rising fuel prices & weaker global

outlook. Push out OCR rate hikes further.

Markets Fixed Income News Foreign Exchange News

Darren Walker

Anthony Barton

Markets Fixed Income News Foreign Exchange News

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