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###POV: RELIEF RALLY IN EQUITIES COULD.....>

EURO-YEN
EURO-YEN: ###POV: RELIEF RALLY IN EQUITIES COULD TRIGGER CROSS JPY STRENGTH
- As trade tensions diminish the relief rally in equities could see EURJPY
extend its recovery through the 200-dma and challenge Y133.23 (50% of the 2018
range).
- A fall in net JPY shorts to the lowest since April, comparable with EUR longs
in the latest CFTC data, point towards further upside momentum.
- Seasonal charts in April suggest this is a good month for risky assets, which
could further weaken the JPY.
- EURJPY risk reversals have reverted back to longer term average following
February's equity sell-off. This suggests markets pricing out the probability of
prolonged JPY strength as a result of risk-off.
RISK - The S&P has not closed Q1 in negative territory since 2009. The index
currently shows a loss of 0.56% which could trigger fresh risk averse markets
ahead of month/quarter end.
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