POV: RESEND: EURSEK CHALLENGING 200-DMA....>

RIKSBANK: POV: RESEND: EURSEK CHALLENGING 200-DMA SUPPORT AHEAD OF RIKSBANK

MINUTES

- EURSEK has broken through trendline support at SEK10.3036 yesterday and is

currently challenging the 200-dma at SEK10.2977.

- The Minutes of last week's Riksbank policy meeting will be released at

8:30GMT. At the meeting, both Floden and Ohlsson dissented in favour of an Oct

hike but the Riksbank left its repo rate forecasts unchanged, leaving markets

unclear of whether the next hike would come in Dec or Feb.

- Skingsley said in the September Minutes that she would have preferred leaving

an October hike in play, but didn't feel strong enough to dissent over the rate

path. Her comments will be closely watched as she is the most likely additional

member to vote for a Dec hike.

- For a Dec hike we need Skingsley and one more Executive Board member to vote

for a hike. If any of the other members seem to be leaning to Dec, EURSEK is

likely to convincingly break through the trendline/200-dma support, opening up a

move to support around SEK10.22.