###POV: RETHINKING Q2 GDP? Today's June.....>

US DATA: ###POV: RETHINKING Q2 GDP? Today's June retail sales figure is likely

to lead to some upward Q2 GDP revisions. These will be keenly eyed as the

preliminary Q2 reading comes out on Jul 26, 5 days before the FOMC decision.

- Q2 GDP Q/Q SAAR mean and median forecasts according to BBG are both 1.8%.

- Ind Prod data out today will restrain revisions a bit, but the control retail

sales number which feeds into GDP in particular was very strong (+7.5%

annualised; +0.7% M/M vs +0.3% exp). Q2 consumption could come in +4.0% Q/Q

annualised on this basis. Note Tsys sold off more on the retail sales beat than

they recovered post-IP miss.

- A few major forecasters (GS 1.4%, JPM 1.3%) were below the 1.8% GDP consensus

going into today (though GS and JPM already appeared to be forecasting private

consumption in high 3%s so may not have much room to move higher on that front

alone).

- Hearing MS raised their Q2 f'cast to 2.5% from 2.1% post-retail, pre-IP.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow entered today at 1.4%, with PCE expected to grow 3.8%.

- 50bps cut in July priced around to 25% post-data, vs just above 30% prior.