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### POV: RISE IN FRONT-END OF ECB FORWARD.....>

EONIA
EONIA: ### POV: RISE IN FRONT-END OF ECB FORWARD DATED EONIA LOOKS OVERDONE.
- September ECB forward dated Eonia has risen by around 3.5bps to -0.32%since
the middle of December and the highest since mid July. On the back of this MNI
PINCH calculate markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a 10bp rate hike at the
September 2018 GC meeting.
- This is despite the 6-week average of EONIA fixing coming in at -0.342% which
included the sharp spike higher at end of November and week long drift back
towards its yearly average.
- The fear seems to be the continued release of supportive Eurozone data and the
future of ECB forward guidance after having extended APP to end of Sept 2018.
- However, at the last ECB GC meeting on Dec 14 President Mario Draghi
re-iterated its forward guidance saying that it "expects the key ECB interest
rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well
past the horizon of the net asset purchases". 
- With most bank analysts expecting rates to rise only 6-months after the end of
QE the rise in front end ECB forward dated Eonia looks overdone.
MarketsFixed Income Bullets
MarketsFixed Income Bullets

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