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### POV: ROBUST RATE HIKE FROM BOC...........>

CANADA
CANADA: ### POV: ROBUST RATE HIKE FROM BOC WEDNESDAY. Current hike probability
estimates are running near 90% for a 25bp hike to 1.75% Wednesday. 
- Chances of a rate hike from the BOC have gained momentum over just the past
few days on the back of strong economic data (cannabis industry inclusion to
Canada's economy notwithstanding). Last week, markets were pricing in one hike
by the end of 2018 (high probability of EITHER Oct 24 or Dec 5 -- mutually
exclusive). 
- Strong economy and lower concerns over USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) as a stumbling block
to higher real rates, leaves door open for more.
- Opinions vary: Dealer estimates had looked for additional 2 hikes in 2019. But
stable global growth is likely to be supportive for Canada into 2019, with some
dealers now looking for as many as 4 hikes next year to 2.75%. 

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