POV: The June BoE meeting comes on the day......>

BOE: POV: The June BoE meeting comes on the day the Conservative Party will

whittle down the final four leadership contenders to the two that will be put

before the party membership. With no Inflation Report due, coverage of the BoE

meeting has flown under the radar a little.

- All analysts in our survey are looking for a unanimous 9-0 decision, and not

all have pointed to risks of a hawkish dissenter. We think that a dissent by

Saunders would not have too much market impact but a hawkish dissent from either

Haldane or Broadbent would be more significant.

- Many previews didn't explicitly discuss the tone that the Minutes will take,

instead focusing on the divergence of views between Vlieghe (dovish) and

Saunders/Haldane/Broadbent (hawkish). We note that given the change in market

pricing (more than a whole 25bp hike taken out at the 2yr horizon), the balance

of risks appears to be tilted to a more hawkish tone. However, without a hawkish

dissent from Haldane or Broadbent and with the prospect of a no deal Brexit

still on the table, the bar may be fairly high for the market to price in a

significantly more hawkish rate path.