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KIWI: ###POV. The main chatter among traders during the Asia session was the
weakness on the Kiwi, the flightless bird edging lower from $0.6888 to $0.6836.
Quite a few traders put the move down to the new government's plans to reform
the RBNZ act. Over the weekend, NZ's Finance minister warned, reforming RBNZ's
policy mandate could potentially lower interest rates. This has been widely
flagged and concerns in the way the Reserve bank will be operating going forward
look to be overblown. The decline in the kiwi so far in October has been around
5.8% and the bird based on Friday at $0.6818, which was also the May 11 low and
potentially a double bottom. Should today's sell off prove to be on news already
telegraphed and priced in, being long with a stop below $0.6815 could offer a
very generous risk-reward trade, with a possible target of $0.7053 (38.2% fib
retracement on the $0.7433 to $0.6818 decline) as shorts start to book healthy
profits. The biggest moves often occur when nobody is on board, sometimes it
pays to be a nobody.
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