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BOE: ###POV: The market is treating Thursday's Bank of England meeting as a
staging ground before the main event in August when the MPC is next expected to
- According to MNI PINCH the market-implied probability of a 25bps hike at the
June meeting is less than 2%, but jumps to 45% for August.
- While the jury is still out on whether the Q1 slowdown was a temporary blip or
the start of a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity, the BoE can
cite a slew of recent positive data releases (services PMI, retail sales and
CPI) to support a hawkish trajectory for the bank rate.
- Hawkish Risk: BoE emphasises importance of the August meeting and the strength
of recent data. Continues to assert that the Q1 slowdown was transitory.
- Neutral: The BoE makes no firm indication that August will be a 'live'
meeting, but highlights the recent improvement in economic data.
- Dovish Risk: In light of weak Q1 data and stronger coincident data, the BoE
adopts a 'wait-and-see' approach, effectively delaying a decision on raising
rates until later in the year.