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### POV: US/CHINA TRADE RISKS - Another risk.....>

US
US: ### POV: US/CHINA TRADE RISKS
- Another risk event on the horizon -- is US/China trade, and the March 1 tariff
cease-fire deadline.
- Do NOT give Kellyanne Conway (or any other talking head for that matter) who
made positive noise about US/China getting closer to a deal, much credence to
their lip-service to a deal (positive or negative).
- Though program trade operations appear to be making short-term trades off
headlines, longer tactical trades better suited to waiting for something more
definitive to make informed decisions.
- Societe Generale research, however, has posted their opinion over 3 scenarios:
1) further escalation of trade war, 25%
2) an extended truce between the two, 70%
3) de-escalation, 5%

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