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RIKSBANK: ### POV: WATCH THE Q1-19 REPO RATE FORECAST
-The Riksbank are almost guaranteed to leave rates on hold at their meeting on
Wednesday with the big debate being over whether they hike in Dec or Feb.
-In the last meeting there was one vote for an immediate hike, one dissent in
favour of keeping October hike in the guidance and one member who disagreed with
pushing back the hike guidance, but not enough to formally dissent. This leaves
two voters likely to vote for an Oct hike and one strongly in favour of Dec. We
have since had strong inflation and the balance of risks suggest either
unchanged or more hawkish guidance (see Friday's State of Play).
- The key thing to watch is the Q1-19 rate forecast (the ave rate for the
quarter). It was previously -0.33%. A move to -0.30% puts a Dec hike at around
75% probability and a move to -0.28% would signal a 90% probably. An increase in
the probability of a Dec hike would likely see EURSEK break below the 200-dma at
10.2733. The next major support would be the July lows at 10.2133.
- If rate forecasts are left unchanged a move up to the 100-dma at 10.3782
should contain the move higher unless there are other dovish changes.